The Dr of the NFL’s Fearless Forecast

AFC Championship Game-New England @ Denver
Is there some sort of immutable law that states that if, in the pre-season, you pick a team to go to the Super Bowl, that you are not allowed to pick against them in the championship game? If so, I’m in a difficult spot. Before the year began, my prognostication was a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl, more on Seattle shortly, but I’m leaning against Brady and company today. Here’s why. Too much is being made about last week when New England ran over Indianapolis. As we pointed out, Indy couldn’t stop the run all year, so let’s make LeGarrett Blount out to be Jim Brown just yet. The Broncos run defense has been stout all year [ranked 7th in NFL] and they will provide much more resistance than the Colts did. Look for Brady to come out throwing in this game vs. a porous Broncos secondary that just lost its’ best corner in Chris Harris and is without their best pass rusher in Von Miller. I fully expect the Pats to consistently move the ball and Brady to amass at least 350 yards passing.
Bill Bellichick has a conundrum in this match up vs. Peyton, if he stacks his chips to stop Denver’s running game, Manning will devour his secondary, and if he stays in a cover 2 to prevent the big play, Peyton will audible into a run and Knowshon Moreno and company will run up and down the field on a terrible Patriot run defense [ranked 30th in NFL]. People forget that because the Colts couldn’t take advantage of it because they were a poor running team, Denver will.
In what promises to be a high scoring shootout, TD’s over FG’s will be the difference. Which team will convert in the Red Zone? Peyton completed 72% of his Red Zone passes and threw 37 red zone TD’s with zero INT’s during the regular season, look for that trend to continue. In addition, New England will be playing a road playoff game for the first time in 7 years. The Patriots are 1-5 vs. the spread in their last 6 road contests, and are 0-5 vs the number in their last 5 games played on glass. Broncos advance to the Super Bowl.
Denver 37 New England 30.

NFC Championship Game-San Francisco @ Seattle
I’ve been going back and forth on this one all week. Seattle’s been the best team all year but the 49ers are red hot and playing better right now. Home field is huge in this one but the 49ers front 7 vs. Seattle’s erratic O-line can quiet things down. Russell Wilson concerns me, he’s not played well the last 4 or 5 games and he’ll be without Percy Harvin. But Colin Kaepernick has been awful in both games he’s played in this building.
As good as Seattle’s defense is, you can run it occasionally on them. The 49ers ran for 163 yards in week 14 win against Seattle, can Gore and company repeat this on the road? This is the key to the game, if Gore is producing, the 49ers can sneak out with a win, if not, Seattle will pressure Kaepernick, contain his rushing lanes, and force him into mistakes. Much has been made of the 49ers resurgence on offense since the return of Michael Crabtree, but Richard Sherman will effectively eliminate him and Vernon Davis will have his hands full with Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas who are the best Safety tandem in the league.
I think San Francisco must get off to a healthy start to take the crowd out of it, otherwise things could snowball. Kaepernick completes just 54% of his passes when he’s trailing. Their offense is built for long drives, not short ones. This is why Gore is the key to the game, by establishing the run and sending a physical message, it could set the 49ers up for the upset. We all know that Seattle is near invincible at home but San Francisco is better equipped than any other team to pull this off.
So who wins? In a game that promises to be a tight, low scoring affair, I think it’s Seattle’s year. I trust Russell Wilson more in this spot not to make a critical error than I do Kaepernick. If both teams struggle to run it, which I expect, it gets to which QB will avoid the big mistake. No defense is better than Seattle’s at stopping the opposing QB, with the combination of pass rush and coverage ability. Look for Seattle’s secondary to get the best of Kaepernick and with the homefield to back them, Seattle returns to the Super Bowl.
Seattle 19 San Francisco 13

NFL HARDKNOCKS {musings and observations from 14 hours of Sunday viewing}

Nov 08, 2012 -- 7:26pm

NFL HARDKNOCKS {musings and observations from 14 hours of Sunday viewing}

Packers 31 Cardinals 17  In the last couple of games Aaron Rogers 13 tds 1 int , and the interception was the receivers fault. He is just scary accurate with the football right now. Randall Cobb is becoming a huge weapon , he returns kicks and punts and catches td passes. Green Bay is starting to run the ball better, Rogers and a running game will keep d-coordinators up at night. Clay Mathews out with bad hamstring for a while is a concern. Green Bay allowed John Skelton to throw for 286 yds including 5 drops, sound the alarms.

Panthers 31 Redskins 13  This game turned when after a long drive, Washington goes for it 4thand goal from the 1 yard line. RGIII gets stopped on a sweep, way too predictable. Subsequent to the goaline stand, the inspired Panthers went 99 for a td before the end of the half. Shannahan in 2 goaline situations did not trust his qb to throw the ball into the endzone. This must stop, RGIII continues to take too many shots, if you have read previous installments you know I have been writing this virtually every week. This will not end well. Cam Newton played well, but I wish he would stop posing after 1stdowns, win then celebrate.

Lions 31 Jaguars 14  The final score of this game was in no way indicative of how awful the Jags looked. About the nicest thing I can say about Jacksonville is that I liked the all black uniforms. Mike Mularky’s offense right now is pathetic. Their 1stround draft pick WR Blackmon can’t consistently beat man coverage, drops balls and gives up on routes. He appears to be another in a series of WR busts for the Jags.Jacksonville’s total offense in the first quarter was 13 yards. At the half the Lions had 3 td’s the Jags has 3 first downs. Gabbert throwing up lollipop interceptions, constant illegal procedure penalties, they are just a pitiful offensive team. I ridiculed Spurrier a week ago for suggesting that Alabama could beat an NFL team, after watching the Jaguars I may have to recalibrate.

Bears 51 Titans 20  First play of the game the Titans fumble, which sets the tone for the entire quarter. Then they have a punt blocked for a TD. Then a pick 6 by Urlacher. Then a fumble by Chris Johnson. The result 28-2 after 1 quarter, game over. 4 Forced fumbles by Charles Tillman in 1 football game, AMAZING!

Return to: Perry Laurentino Blog