The Dr of the NFL’s Fearless Forecast

AFC Championship Game-New England @ Denver
Is there some sort of immutable law that states that if, in the pre-season, you pick a team to go to the Super Bowl, that you are not allowed to pick against them in the championship game? If so, I’m in a difficult spot. Before the year began, my prognostication was a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl, more on Seattle shortly, but I’m leaning against Brady and company today. Here’s why. Too much is being made about last week when New England ran over Indianapolis. As we pointed out, Indy couldn’t stop the run all year, so let’s make LeGarrett Blount out to be Jim Brown just yet. The Broncos run defense has been stout all year [ranked 7th in NFL] and they will provide much more resistance than the Colts did. Look for Brady to come out throwing in this game vs. a porous Broncos secondary that just lost its’ best corner in Chris Harris and is without their best pass rusher in Von Miller. I fully expect the Pats to consistently move the ball and Brady to amass at least 350 yards passing.
Bill Bellichick has a conundrum in this match up vs. Peyton, if he stacks his chips to stop Denver’s running game, Manning will devour his secondary, and if he stays in a cover 2 to prevent the big play, Peyton will audible into a run and Knowshon Moreno and company will run up and down the field on a terrible Patriot run defense [ranked 30th in NFL]. People forget that because the Colts couldn’t take advantage of it because they were a poor running team, Denver will.
In what promises to be a high scoring shootout, TD’s over FG’s will be the difference. Which team will convert in the Red Zone? Peyton completed 72% of his Red Zone passes and threw 37 red zone TD’s with zero INT’s during the regular season, look for that trend to continue. In addition, New England will be playing a road playoff game for the first time in 7 years. The Patriots are 1-5 vs. the spread in their last 6 road contests, and are 0-5 vs the number in their last 5 games played on glass. Broncos advance to the Super Bowl.
Denver 37 New England 30.

NFC Championship Game-San Francisco @ Seattle
I’ve been going back and forth on this one all week. Seattle’s been the best team all year but the 49ers are red hot and playing better right now. Home field is huge in this one but the 49ers front 7 vs. Seattle’s erratic O-line can quiet things down. Russell Wilson concerns me, he’s not played well the last 4 or 5 games and he’ll be without Percy Harvin. But Colin Kaepernick has been awful in both games he’s played in this building.
As good as Seattle’s defense is, you can run it occasionally on them. The 49ers ran for 163 yards in week 14 win against Seattle, can Gore and company repeat this on the road? This is the key to the game, if Gore is producing, the 49ers can sneak out with a win, if not, Seattle will pressure Kaepernick, contain his rushing lanes, and force him into mistakes. Much has been made of the 49ers resurgence on offense since the return of Michael Crabtree, but Richard Sherman will effectively eliminate him and Vernon Davis will have his hands full with Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas who are the best Safety tandem in the league.
I think San Francisco must get off to a healthy start to take the crowd out of it, otherwise things could snowball. Kaepernick completes just 54% of his passes when he’s trailing. Their offense is built for long drives, not short ones. This is why Gore is the key to the game, by establishing the run and sending a physical message, it could set the 49ers up for the upset. We all know that Seattle is near invincible at home but San Francisco is better equipped than any other team to pull this off.
So who wins? In a game that promises to be a tight, low scoring affair, I think it’s Seattle’s year. I trust Russell Wilson more in this spot not to make a critical error than I do Kaepernick. If both teams struggle to run it, which I expect, it gets to which QB will avoid the big mistake. No defense is better than Seattle’s at stopping the opposing QB, with the combination of pass rush and coverage ability. Look for Seattle’s secondary to get the best of Kaepernick and with the homefield to back them, Seattle returns to the Super Bowl.
Seattle 19 San Francisco 13

NFL HARD KNOCKS

Sep 26, 2012 -- 8:02am

{ thoughts and observations from 14 hours of nonstop Sunday viewing}

Bears 23  Rams 6      For all the grief Jay Cutler gets, and some of it is deserved, the Bears are still struggling to protect him, and 3 more drops by Chicago receivers. Michael Bush is a good insurance policy for Matt Forte. Despite offensive issues the Bears still bring a formidable defense, they held the Rams to 3 yards of total offense in the 1stquarter, sacked Bradford 6 times {Bears have 14 sacks in 3 games} gave up only 6 pts and scored 7 on an interception. Look like a playoff team.

Texans 31 Broncos 25  I thought Houston’s o-line would take a step back having lost 2 starters from last year. WRONG, they might be the best group in the league, and Arian Foster and Ben Tate are a terrific one two punch. Foster does a wonderful job of patiently   setting up his blocks. Matt Shaub was outstanding, tossing a couple of gorgeous deep balls, and he does an excellent job of carrying out his playaction  fakes, which adds to the deception. Add to this a relentless defense with 3 guys who can pressure the qb, and what you have right now, is the best team in the NFL

Kansas City 24 Aints 21   You’re 0-2, up 24-6 at home with 5 minutes left in the 3rdquarter , and lose? The Saints are DONE, put it in the books and file it. Jamal Charles running thru holes you could drive a bus through. Where are the Saints defenders? Matt Cassell shredding the secondary like mozzarella cheese. Time for Saints fans to break out the paper bags again.

Raiders of the lost cause 34 Steelers 31  How do you lose when your QB Big Ben  is 36 for 46 for 386 yards with 4 tds and 0 ints? Ask Dick LeBeau, the apparently near senile Defensive coordinator, who stood idly by, with his thumb in his mouth, and allowed and aging and diminished Carson Palmer to carve his defense up like a Halloween pumpkin. A pitiful loss to an injury ravaged inferior team. The anemic Raiders had a total of 4 possessions in the 2ndhalf. The results: TD,TD,FG, FG. Zero stops, zero adjustments. An utterly horrendous job, by the ancient and doddering coach, who if he had any sense of integrity, would donate his paycheck to charity. Woeful preparation, he and his defensive staff should be embarrassed and ashamed......

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